A Glimpse into the Trajectory of the Real Estate Market for May As we await the statistics for May, this week let's take a preliminary look at the Kelowna real estate market's trajectory. Sales in May showed a significant jump from April, resulting in a decrease in months of inventory from 5.19 to 4.35. While this trend favors sellers, it poses challenges for buyers, as lower months of inventory indicate a potential upward trajectory in prices. In May, 544 sales were recorded, with 2,366 active listings. As the spring listing season progresses, we are gradually witnessing an increase in inventory, with approximately 100 new listings added per month since March. However, this rise in supply is being met with heightened demand, which is absorbing a significant portion of the newly listed properties.
Our focus this week is on analyzing the months of inventory (MOI) across different price ranges and building types. The months of inventory serve as a valuable indicator: a balanced market typically ranges between 5-8 months, while 0-5 months indicate a seller's market, and 8+ months represent a buyer's market. The lower the number, the more robust the market, as it reflects the interplay between demand (sales) and supply (active listings). For individuals involved in both buying and selling within the same market, the dynamics remain relative and can vary depending on property type which we dive into below.
Single Family Homes As you see there is a fairly consistent MOI for homes up to $1.2M and then the months of inventory starts to jump. The overall market for single family homes is 4.78, however when breaking it down to price ranges under $1.2M the MOI hovers between 2.61 and 3.16 before jumping to 4.86 at the $1.2M range
Townhome The overall townhome mark has a low MOI at 2.86. When breaking it down to price ranges under $600,000 has a much lower MOI under 1.5, which likely is driven by the lower amount of inventory in this price range. Once you get into the $800ks the MOI jumps to over 3 which is still a sellers market. The biggest glut we are seeing right now in the townhome market between the $900k-$1M range where the months of inventory jumps to 19, before dropping down to a healthier 6.5 MOI for $1M to $1.1M range. This discrepancy deserves a deeper look into which I will provide next week, but my initial thought is there is likely a surplus of new build townhomes currently on the market that are not completed yet in this price range which most people are looking for occupancy in the next 60-90 days. .
Condos Overall the market here is also favouring the sellers, with 3.47 MOI. The $1M + price range is sitting at 7 MOI and for the market was below 5 MOI until the $800k + price range still making it sellers market for most condo sellers.
Age Restricted With the Provincial Governments removal of age restrictions back in November for all complexes except for 55+. The demand for 55+ became greater and the less supply tightened the market for what people are looking for. As you can see the age restricted properties are relatively hot commodities. Each type of build is below 3 MOI regardless of price point. If you are looking at Age Restricted for a future move, this might be an area to watch that you don’t leave it too long to make the move because if you do the prices might be increasing faster than other areas of the market, given the reduced supply and increase in demand since November.
While we anticipate the stats for May once the dust settles and all the solds and actives are recorded, preliminary data suggests a dynamic market, but is a bit dependent on what price range your in.. Mark and Maddie