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Summer vs Fall



The views of the lake and Knox Mountain from a new listing coming up this week, from the 18th floor of One Water Street in the brand new West Tower.




It is still the same old story. So far in August, we have averaged around

14 sales a day (including weekends)



As we head out of summer (it seems like it just started) and vacations are winding down, the next month or two will be a test in the marketplace. In the last couple of months, the buyers buying power has been affected (by the interest rate increases) and it appears buyer's confidence is low. That being said, normally as we head into September buyers are fairly motivated, to get a purchase in before the snow flies and maybe to get in before rate holds expire..... I have yet to meet someone who likes to move in the winter, the window to make that happen is closing if it hasn't already and this year buyers might have a bit more motivation, to be able to get in before the interest rate increase that is expected in early September. This week we are looking at the average number of sales by the month over the last 7 years as a whole and the 5 years before things went bananas.



*August 2022 sales are as of 08-23 and not a reflection of the full month. Projecting out the remaining 8 days based on the average of 13.2 sales a day so far including weekends August sales should end up at 406 *



When looking at the numbers, with the abundance of sales over this past couple of years, I felt it was worthwhile to also compare where the market was before all of the Government stimulus and printing of money.


As you can see the sales in 2022 up until April followed above both the averages, before taking a slight turn in May and really dropping off in June after the initial interest rate increase of 0.5% on June 1st. July was further dampened with the prime rate increase of 1%. Things seemed to slightly recover, or maybe it is just motivated buyers getting in before winter but August sales will surpass July, which mind you is not much of a feat as the sales are still on pace for 35%-50% fewer sales compared to the 7 and 5 year averages. This summer we have experienced sales down 35-50%. As we look ahead to fall, reports are indicating that inflation is improving in Canada, one of the major factors is the cost of gas is a bit more reasonable these days. With this in mind, there may be less pressure for a drastic rate hike in September but with the inflation still way outside the 2-3% target there will likely be another increase.


Have a great week and reach out if there is anything in the world I can do for you.

Mark



Mark Coons

Personal Real Estate Corporation

Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty

2021 Top 3% Internationally Coldwell Banker


Mobile: 250-801-0361


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